DHI has been awarded a contract with the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) to carry out risk assessment and evaluate alternative operation strategies for the Panama Canal basin. The project involves assessment of the future conditions including climate change effects and land use changes in the basin.
ACP are responsible for navigation through the Panama Canal. The canal will be expanded and reconfigured and new rules for lock, dam and spillway control will apply from 2010.
Due to decreasing water levels during drought periods ACP would like to maintain higher water levels in Gatun and Madden Dam to secure operation of the locks. Higher water levels do however affect flood risk, hydropower production and ability to meet water demands in the basin.
Prognosis from previous meteorological and climate change studies indicate higher rainfall rates in Panama with increasing sea temperatures in the Caribbean Sea. Rainfall data covering the basin for a 1000 year period have been generated including high intensity, extreme rainfall events, which represent significant risks with respect management and operation of the Canal and upstream dams.
DHI will develop hydrological and hydraulic models driven by the predicted rainfall data. The models include structure operation of multi purpose dams and associated rule curves. Exceedance statistics for flooding and water levels are derived with alternative operation strategies and considering potential land use changes within the basin by year 2031.